2020 China Coking Coal Market Study and 2021 Outlook

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SUMMARY

Looking back at 2020, the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic at the beginning of the year caused a severe blow to the global economy. Encouragingly, the Chinese economy shows strong resilience, and recovers rapidly after a short-term decline. Since June, China's steel demand has maintained a high growth, and monthly crude steel and pig iron outputs hit fresh highs. In the context of coking de-capacity, coke production continues being constrained, suppressing coking coal consumption. In the meantime, after the coal industry completed the de-capacity task, the release of new capacity has accelerated, and domestic coking coal supply capacity has enhanced. Despite staged supply deficit brought by strict curbs on imported coal, the supply of coking coal is relatively loose throughout the year, and the average prices move down.

INTRODUCTION

As approaching the end of 2020, Fenwei is timely releasing “2020 China Coking Coal Market Study and 2021 Outlook”, to review and interpret important policies affecting the coal industry operation especially coking coal market in 2020, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2021 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc.

The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China’s coking coal industry.

1 2020 China Coal Cost Analysis

1.1 Cost influencing factors in main producing areas
1.1.1 Influencing factors
The COVID-19 pandemic
Coal supply-side reform
Reforms of state-owned enterprises
Safety and environmental inspections
1.1.2 2020 changes in main components of raw coal all-in production cost
Changes of labor wages, raw material and power costs
Changes of sales, management and financial expenses
1.2 Production and washing cost change in main producing areas by coal type
1.2.1 Thermal coal
1.2.2 Coking coal
1.2.3 PCI coal
1.2.4 Chemical coal
1.3 Coal transport cost change (typical routes)
1.3.1 Roadway
1.3.2 Railway
1.3.3 Waterway
1.4 Coal CFR cost at ports
1.4.1 Thermal coal
1.4.2 Coking coal
1.4.3 PCI coal
1.4.4 Chemical coal
2 2021-2025 China Coal Cost Trend Analysis
2.1 Forecast methodology
2.2 Coal cost influencing factors
2.2.1 Policies - supply-side reform, safety inspections, environmental protection, roadway transport shifting to railways, resources, mining conditions…
2.2.2 2021-2025 changes in main components of raw coal all-in production cost
 Labor, raw material and power costs
 Sales, management and financial expenses
2.3 Commercial coal cost forecast in main producing areas
2.3.1 Thermal coal
2.3.2 Coking coal
2.3.3 PCI coal
2.3.4 Chemical coal
2.4 Coal transport cost forecast (typical routes)
2.4.1 Roadway
2.4.2 Railway
2.4.3 Waterway
2.5 Coal CFR cost at ports
2.5.1 Thermal coal
2.5.2 Coking coal
2.5.3 PCI coal
2.5.4 Chemical coal
3 Conclusions

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