Coal and Downstream Markets Outlook under the COVID-19 Global Pandemic

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SUMMARY

Although Covid-19 epidemic is largely curbed within China, the fallout has profoundly impacted the country's economy and its trade of coal and other commodities. As the epidemic is still spreading across the world, the “black swan event” has left many things worth summarizing and pondering.

It reviewed the macroeconomics first, and follows specifically the coal and downstream industries analysis, expounded the impact of the epidemic from different aspects including supply, demand, capacity utilization, import policies. Based on the deep analysis, it forecasts the 2020 coal and downstream market trends.

INTRODUCTION

1 The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Economy and Coal Related Industries

COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei Province

COVID-19 has great impact on China's economy and social life

Both coal supply and demand were affected

Prices of coal and downstream products

2 COVID-19 Global Pandemic

COVID-19 global pandemic - cities lockdown and social distancing

3 The Impact of COVID-19 on Global Economy and Coal Related Industries

Global economic recession and financial turbulence are guaranteed trigged by COVID-19

Thermal coal production cuts earlier than coking coal in the seaborne market

The major concern on coal market

4 Government Stimulus Efforts to Fight the COVID-19 Crisis

China’s stimulus efforts - Boosting domestic demand, speeding up construction of major projects, issuing special national bonds and increasing special local bonds, special refinancing and financial discount; speeding up “new infrastructure investment”

Other countries' stimulus efforts

5 Coal and Downstream Markets Outlook in 2020

Thermal coal - China’s thermal coal supply-demand balance will remain loose, and 2020 thermal coal price center of gravity will continue moving down.

Coking coal - Coking coal production will continue increasing moderately and imports will remain high, leading China’s coking coal price to continue going down in 2020.

6 China’s Coal Import Policy Interpretation and Imports Outlook

Import policy summaries and interpretation

2020 coal imports are expected to reduce slightly

7 China Coal Capacity Update

Achievements of supply-side reform

Status of China’s coal capacity in 2020

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