China is in transition into the “new normal” of slower growth by pressing ahead with industrial restructuring, regional layout adjustment and transformation of economic growth pattern, which has resulted in gradual alteration of the domestic coal market, i.e., along with the economic slowdown, the issue of overcapacity in coking and metallurgy industries stood out, which triggered price plunge of both coke and steel, and in turn dragged down coking coal price and imposed great pressure upon coal enterprises.

In this report of “2015-2020 China Metallurgical Coal Market Analysis and Forecast” produced by Fenwei experts, there are massive data covering coal quality, cost, supply, demand, import, export, upstream and downstream sectors, market analysis, and policy interpretation, as well as authoritative analysis and forecast in text accompanied with vivid presentations in figures and tables. In this report, readers will not only find answers to those questions, but understand what China metallurgical coal market had undergone in the past year, and gain an outlook of the market in the coming year.
Please review the report’s outlines below and contact us for more information.

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2015-2020 China Metallurgical Coal Market
Analysis and Forecast

山西汾渭能源信息服务有限公司
Fenwei Energy Infomation Services Co.Ltd.

1. China Met Coal Demand in 2015 and Forecast for 2016-2020

1.1 Iron & steel supply and demand began to fall back after reaching peak

1.1.1 Decapacity has become a mainstream trend in iron & steel industry

1.1.2 Improvement in iron-making technologies keeps reducing coke use

1.1.2.1 Large-sized blast furnaces calls for high-quality coke

1.1.2.2 Descending coke ratio and ascending PCI ratio

1.2 Slow growth in iron & steel industry weighs on coking industry

1.2.1 Coke production and demand remains at downside

1.2.2 Technological progress lowers coal burn for per tonne coke output

1.2.3 Industry policies require lower blending ratio of premium coking coal

1.2.4 Coking plants/steel mills have been changing requirements for met coal quality

1.3 Met coal demand in 2015 and forecast for 2016-2020

1.3.1 Coking coal demand by coal types

1.3.2 PCI coal demand by coal types

1.3.3 Sintering coal demand by coal types

2. China Met Coal Supply in 2015

2.1 Met coal output dropped [%] y-o-y

2.1.1 Raw met coal output

2.1.2 Washed met coal supply

2.1.2.1 Coking coal supply by coal types

2.1.2.2 PCI coal supply by coal types

2.2 Characteristics of China coal industry amid market downturn

2.2.1 Disparity in regional production cut is outcome of market selection

2.2.2 Private coal miners cut production more vigorously than SOEs

2.2.2.1 Central SOEs to abide by the policies for limiting production

2.2.2.2 Some SOEs may seize market share by increasing coal supply to offset lower prices

2.2.2.3 Decapacity policies to greatly impact private coal miners

2.3 Problems in front of Chinese coal miners amid bearish market

2.3.1 Oversupply to remain in the long run due to worsening market environment

2.3.2 Most problems are caused by malfunctioning supply-side policies

2.3.3 Local governments lack motivation to cut coal production due to concerns for fiscal revenue

2.3.4 Financial strain

3. China Met Coal Supply Forecast over 2016-2020

3.1 Decapacity to remain top priority in domestic coal industry

3.1.1 Major paths for decapacity

3.1.1.1 Withdrawal of small mines required by policies

3.1.1.2 Natural elimination of exhausting mines

3.1.1.3 Market-driven closure of loss-making mines

3.1.2 Obstructions in the way of decapacity

3.1.2.1 Operating mechanism of SOEs to hold back decapacity (provinces with more SOE coal miners are less inactive in cutting coal production)

3.1.2.1 Implementation of production-cut policies tends to be ineffective at provincial level (the provinces relying on coal economy to maintain input into coal industry)

3.1.2.2 Risks in erosion of state assets

3.1.2.3 Personnel resettling and debt repayment are primary issues

3.2 Met coal capacity forecast over 2016-2020

3.2.1 Total met coal capacity to decrease in 2016

3.2.2 Met coal supply concentration ratio to further increase

3.2.2.1 Share of state-owned capacity to further increase

3.2.2.2 Major production areas to occupy larger share in national total capacity (to focus on Shanxi’s decapacity endeavor and result)

3.3 Met coal supply forecast over 2016-2020

3.3.1 Coking coal supply by coal types

3.3.2 PCI coal supply by coal types

3.4 Supply-demand comparison: supply to remain a key issue amid slack demand

4. China Met Coal Import and Export in 2015 and Forecast for 2016-2020

4.1 Requirements of coastal steel mills for imported coal

4.1.1 Complementary quality with domestic coal

4.1.2 Lower prices

4.1.3 Stable supply

4.2 China met coal imports in 2015 and importing provinces

4.3 Major steel mills concentrating in coastal areas facilitates met coal import

4.4 China coking coal imports forecast over 2016-2020

4.5 China met coal exports to grow 21% y-o-y but remain small in total tonnage

4.6 More likely to further increase met coal exports in 2016

5. China Met Coal Cost in 2015 and Forecast for 2016-2020

5.1 Decreasing cost in 2015

5.1.1 Coal miners were lowering cost by cutting labor fee and raising productivity

5.1.2 Declining transport cost

5.2 CFR cost comparison between Chinese and imported coals

5.3 Cost forecast over 2016-2020

5.3.1 SOE reform to lower enterprises’ structural cost

5.3.2 Excessive transport capacity to further weigh on transport cost

5.3.3 Withdrawal of low-cost and large-sized private miners may slightly raise domestic coal marginal cost

6. China Met Coal Prices in 2015 and Forecast for 2016-2020

6.1 Review of met coal price trend in past years and influencing factors

6.2 Met coal prices tend to be reasonable along with balancing supply-demand relation