Barclays on January 21 forecast 2020 oil demand to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), up from growth of 900,000 bpd in 2019, and an increase of 50,000 bpd from its earlier forecast, on an expected recovery in global economic activity

The demand growth will be led by emerging market countries in Asia and Latin America. Much of this growth will come from India, where oil demand will increase by 250,000 bpd in 2020 from 2019, the bank said in a note. The bank also raised its growth estimates for the United States and China following the Phase 1 trade deal sign last week.

"Recent signing of the Phase 1 trade deal between the U.S. and China will likely boost investment confidence and will likely lead to increased activity growth," the bank said adding material gains in trade volume will largely depend on the pace of tariff reductions, which remains uncertain.

The bank maintained its 2020 forecasts for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices at $62 per barrel and $57 per barrel, respectively.

The relative calm in oil markets hides the shifting underlying dynamics such as more aggressive output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, or OPEC+, rising U.S. shale growth constraints and heightened geopolitical risks with U.S.-Iran tensions.

OPEC+ agreed to deepen output cuts for the first quarter of 2020 and will next meet on March to decide on further cuts.

(Writing by Wenxin Wu  Editing by Harry Huo)
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