2023 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Study and 2024 Outlook

China domestic coking coal supply increases steadily in H1 2023. The imports of Mongolian coal and Russian coal surge, and the ban on Australian coal imports is lifted. So, the overall supply picks up. However, under the background of overseas bank collapse, declining domestic real estate and infrastructure investments, demand expectations weaken, starting a negative feedback in the industrial chain. So, coking coal and coke prices slide in H1. Entering H2, amid upgraded safety inspections at production areas, domestic coking coal supply is tightened. Shanxi province plans to shut down all 4.3-m coke ovens before end-October, reducing coke production capacity in a short term. Both coking coal and coke supplies are expected to decrease. As crude steel production control policy has not unveiled and downstream procurement rebounds with winter season approaching, coking coal and coke prices turn strong again.

Will the intensity of safety inspections change in 2024? Is there further growth room for Mongolian coal and Russian coal imports? Would coking coal import landscape be changed with the restoration of price advantage of Australian coal? How will coke capacity reduction proceed in Inner Mongolia and other provinces? Will coke capacity see a net increment? These questions need our in-depth study.

Fenwei is producing “2023 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Study and 2024 Outlook”, to review and interpret important policies affecting coking coal and coke markets in 2023, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2024 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc.

The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China's coking coal and coke industries.

The outline of the report is as follows.

1 2023 China Coking Coal and Coke Market Review: prices in V-shaped trends, average annual prices moving down

2 Macro-economy Overview and Outlook  

2.1 Domestic macro-economy overview and outlook
2.2 Impact on the coal industry

3 Coke Market Operation Analysis and Forecast

3.1 Coke capacity: capacity replacement accelerating in 2023, and producing coke capacity expected to expand in 2024
3.1.1 Coking capacity structure by end-2023
3.1.2 Progress and forecast of capacity reduction in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia
3.1.3 Coke capacity expansion potential

3.2 Coke production: capacity constraints significantly weakening, profit margins deciding production
3.2.1 Driving factors of coke production during 2023-2024
3.2.2   Coke output analysis and prediction

3.3 Coke demand: greatly constrained by end users' performance and focusing on policy-driven production cuts
3.3.1 Production of pig iron, crude steel and finished steel products in 2023 and forecast for 2024
3.3.2 Coke demand analysis and prediction

3.4 Coke import and export: a supplementary sales direction while impact limited in a short term
3.4.1 Import and export in 2023
3.4.2 Import and export forecast in 2024

3.5 Coke prices: average annual prices moving down amid large capacity surplus
3.5.1 Supply-demand balance: supply capacity sufficient, demand driving supply
3.5.2 Inventory: building up due to loose supply
3.5.3 Coke price trends in 2023
3.5.4   Coke price forecast for 2024

4 Coking Coal Market Analysis and Forecast

4.1 Coal industry policies
4.1.1 Production growth and supply assurance: supply assurance still underway, but the policy force may weaken
4.1.2 Safety inspections: upgrading in H2 2023, to keep strict in 2024
4.1.3 Import and export: zero import duty prolonged to end-2023; focusing on the policies of exporting countries

4.2 Coking coal supply: capacity expansion narrowing, focusing policy side and profit constraints
4.2.1 Coking coal capacity structure in 2023 and forecast in 2024
4.2.2 Coking coal supply in 2023 and forecast in 2024

4.3 Coking coal demand: downstream output maintaining high, focusing on the change of procurement strategies

4.4 Coking coal import and export: imports from main source countries jumping, import structure may be adjusted in the later period
4.4.1 China's coking coal import and export in 2023
Total import volume
Causes for increasing imports of Mongolian coal and Russian coal
Causes for tepid Australian coal imports
4.4.2  China's coking coal import and export forecast in 2024
Import and export forecast
Import growth potential from major source countries

4.5 Coking coal prices
4.5.1 Supply-demand balance: supply-demand landscape improving, yet          periodic shortages still occurring
4.5.2 Inventory: low inventories both at the upstream and downstream, insufficient inventory buildup
4.5.3 Coking coal price trends at home and abroad markets in 2023
4.5.4   Coking coal price forecast for 2024?