2023 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2024 Outlook

China domestic thermal coal supply maintains high in H1 2023 along with the continuous release of new production capacity. Thanks to sufficient Indonesian coal supply, eastward flow of Russian coal trade, the lift of Australian coal import ban and improved customs clearance of Mongolian coal, China's import volumes reach a record high. So, overall coal supply is ample. However, due to slow recovery of demand, coal prices continue falling into the capped zone. Since Shanxi province investigates underreported safety incidents in the past decade since July, many past accidents were disclosed. Facing frequent safety accidents in main producing areas, safety inspections are upgraded, disrupting normal production and reducing coal supply during July-August when coal demand is strong. At the same time, owing to demand release in non-power industries entering peak production season and structural supply shortage of quality cargoes at Chinese ports, coal prices rebound strongly in Q3. In Q4, supply guarantee efforts and safety checks will coexist. However, high inventory at power plants and seasonally falling demand in non-electricity sectors will hinder demand release, causing coal prices hard to strengthen in winter heating season.

Will safety inspection strength change in 2024? Will structural contradiction in domestic coal supply be eased? Will the import volumes of high-calorific Australian and Russian coal further increase, thereby squeezing the market space of low-calorific Indonesian coal? Can profit loss for coal shipment from producing areas relieve? Will coal prices continue to reverse seasonal characteristics? These questions need our in-depth study.

Fenwei is producing “2023 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2024 Outlook”, to review and interpret important policies affecting coal market in 2023, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast in 2024 centering on policy environment, demand, production, supply, price, import & export, etc.

The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters in clear analytic logics and viewpoints, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for market participants to become versed in the development trend of China's thermal coal industry.

The outline of the report is as follows.


1.China Macro-economy Review and Outlook
1.1China's macro economy achieves stable recovery in 2023
1.2Macro-economy outlook for 2024
1.3Impact on the coal industry

2.Coal Industry Policies in 2023 and Developing Direction in 2024
2.1Supply assurance and safety inspections coexisting
2.2Zero tariff policy extended to end-2023
2.3Impact of carbon peak and carbon neutrality

3.China Thermal Coal Demand in 2023 and Forecast in 2024
3.1Total thermal coal demand in 2023 and forecast in 2024

3.2Power industry
3.2.1China's electricity demand maintains a steady growth in 2023, with hydropower improving but still weak; thermal power continuing to play a cornerstone role
3.2.2Forecast of coal consumption in the power industry in 2024

3.3Iron and steel industry
3.3.1Weak real demand and strong expectations contradicting in 2023, steel mills maintain high production load amid strong exports
3.3.2Forecast of coal consumption in the iron and steel industry in 2024

3.4Building materials industry
3.4.1Real estate industry trapped in recession in 2023, reducing building materials demand
3.4.2Forecast of coal consumption in building materials industry in 2024

3.5Chemical industry
3.5.1Competitiveness of coal chemical products declining in 2023, inhibiting production growth
3.5.2Forecast of coal consumption in the chemical industry in 2024

3.6Heating industry
3.6.1Demand in the heating industry increasing YoY in 2023
3.6.2Forecast of coal consumption in heating industry in 2024

4.China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis in 2023 and Forecast in 2024
4.1Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast
4.1.1Capacity growth slowing down in 2023 after large capacity expansion in 2021-2022
4.1.22024 capacity forecast

4.2Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast
4.2.1Thermal coal supply seeing limited increase in 2023 due to safety checks
4.2.2Thermal coal supply forecast for 2024

4.3Thermal coal inventory analysis and forecast
4.3.1Small inventory pressure in producing areas
4.3.2Large inventory depletion at transfer ports in summer, structural storage problem prominent
4.3.3Downstream power plants maintain high inventory strategy
4.3.4Forecast of inventory trends in each segment in 2024

5.China Thermal Coal Import and Export Analysis in 2023 and Forecast in 2024

5.1China's thermal coal imports
5.1.1Sufficient Indonesian coal supply, changed flow directions of Russian coal, lifted ban on Australian coal and surging Mongolian coal imports contribute to record high imports in 2023
5.1.2Import forecast for 2024

5.2China's thermal coal exports
5.2.1Export volume in 2023
5.2.2Export forecast for 2024

6.China Thermal Coal Price Review in 2023 and Forecast in 2024
6.1Thermal coal supply turning loose in 2023, supply-demand unbalance still occurring in some periods

6.2 China's thermal coal prices falling in H1, seasonal price characteristics reversing in H2
6.2.1Thermal coal prices show higher fall-resisting property in producing areas while unable to cover shipment cost at port market
6.2.2Imported coal has obvious price advantage

6.3Thermal coal price forecast for 2024
6.3.1Analysis of price influencing factors
6.3.2Thermal coal price forecast by month for 2024